If you sold your Baylor stock a long time ago, you’d have been forgiven on Saturday. For most of the first half against Villanova, the top-seeded Bears struggled to dissect a well-drilled Wildcats zone. The Bears’ dominant early-season play probably set an unfair standard, but it’s been pretty tough to guess which version of this team will show up at a given point in time. Sometimes, there’s no rushing it.
In that rocky half, emotions ran high, and very little broke right. Baylor shot just 2 of 12 from three in a mucky first half, in which neither team managed a fast-break point. They were settling for tough threes and trailed by seven. Scott Drew closed the half with a four-guard lineup. The Bears were searching.
As great teams do, they found whatever it was they were looking for at halftime. “We know [threes are] not gonna fall every night,” Davion Mitchell told reporters postgame. “We gotta guard and be able to get to the rim.” With about 10 minutes left in the game, Baylor dug in. The Bears redoubled their emphasis on the drive and used their speed as an advantage. Mitchell’s committed ball pressure and frenetic energy sped up Villanova’s perimeter players in the worst way. Baylor’s guards played up in the gaps and disjointed the Wildcats’ flow. Matthew Mayer and Adam Flagler turned in impact minutes off the bench.
“We knew if we wanted to win, we had to make them uncomfortable,” Mitchell said. Despite the absence of injured Collin Gillespie, the Wildcats had turned it over just six times in each of their first two tourney games. Baylor forced nine turnovers in the second half alone. Villanova shot 0 for 9 from three in the second half and went to the foul line just three times. Meanwhile, Baylor scored 28 points in the paint, scored 13 points off nine turnovers and forced six steals.
The Bears have been widely pegged since fall as the only team with a chance to topple title favorite Gonzaga. A February COVID-19 pause broke up their rhythm. They’ve taken their lumps since. They didn’t win the Big 12 tournament. Heading into Monday’s Elite Eight matchup with Arkansas, there’s not much leeway left for the Bears’ temporary lapses in identity.
If you picked Baylor to win the whole thing, you’re in the minority. But there’s still reason to be bullish. The Bears’ backcourt is still the deepest and toughest around. The requisite balance for Mitchell and Jared Butler to thrive in the same game is delicate. But when they all share the ball, (and they usually do), they reap the benefits. MaCio Teague has been quiet the last two games, while Adam Flagler seems to have rediscovered his confidence.
The real item of concern moving forward is the distribution of playing time in the frontcourt. Mark Vital remains a big piece of the rotation, and his motor is valuable, but he clogs up Baylor's spacing, and his minutes sometimes create diminishing returns. Matthew Mayer played just five minutes in the first half, and couldn’t match Villanova’s physicality. He bounced back with a real effort on the glass, and if he keeps it up, we may see more of him from here on out. Flo Thamba and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua combined for just six points and five rebounds at center, and frankly, that platoon has to play much better. If the Bears keep giving up the rim the way they did for much of Saturday, even making the Final Four is going to be an uphill climb.
Baylor was up and down against Wisconsin last week, too. They probably can’t afford another game like this, or even another average day. We’ll find out Monday whether what we just saw was a vivid dream, or a proper awakening. Whether Baylor’s best is good enough, though, has never been in doubt.